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Colombian Peso MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

18.11%

decreased by 1.78%

1 Week

17.58%

decreased by 2.31%

1 Month

16.79%

decreased by 3.10%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

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graph of Colombian Peso MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 20, 1992 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 109% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 109% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.1664
8.73***
βGARCH0.7639
30.26***
γleverage-0.0867
-3.65***
λ₁tau intercept0.0003
2.10**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0268
6.05***
λ₃tau persistence0.9732
225.59***

0.887

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1664
8.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7639
30.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0867
-3.65***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0003
2.10**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0268
6.05***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9732
225.59***

Persistence:

0.887

Half-life:

6 days