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Colombian Peso MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

12.20%

increased by 1.31%

1 Week

12.47%

increased by 1.58%

1 Month

13.15%

increased by 2.26%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 07:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Colombian Peso MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 20, 1992 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 109% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 109% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.1673
8.78***
βGARCH0.7633
30.24***
γleverage-0.0873
-3.68***
λ₁tau intercept0.0003
2.09**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0267
6.05***
λ₃tau persistence0.9733
226.02***

0.887

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1673
8.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7633
30.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0873
-3.68***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0003
2.09**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0267
6.05***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9733
226.02***

Persistence:

0.887

Half-life:

6 days