Colombian Peso MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
12.20%
1 Week
12.47%
1 Month
13.15%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 07:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 20, 1992 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 109% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.1673 | 8.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7633 | 30.24*** |
| γleverage | -0.0873 | -3.68*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0003 | 2.09** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0267 | 6.05*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9733 | 226.02*** |
0.887
Persistence6d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1673 | 8.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7633 | 30.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0873 | -3.68*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0003 | 2.09** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0267 | 6.05*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9733 | 226.02*** |
Persistence:
0.887
Half-life:
6 days
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