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V-Lab

Colombian Peso MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

14.38%

decreased by 0.87%

1 Week

14.74%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Month

15.54%

increased by 0.29%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Colombian Peso MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 20, 1992 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 108% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 108% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.1662
8.72***
βGARCH0.7643
30.35***
γleverage-0.0864
-3.64***
λ₁tau intercept0.0003
2.09**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0268
6.03***
λ₃tau persistence0.9732
224.65***

0.887

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1662
8.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7643
30.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0864
-3.64***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0003
2.09**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0268
6.03***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9732
224.65***

Persistence:

0.887

Half-life:

6 days