Canadian Dollar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
4.31%
1 Week
4.02%
1 Month
4.02%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 07:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 116% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.1590 | 6.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | -0.0853 | -3.04*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0010 | 3.48*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0473 | 6.36*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9453 | 111.84*** |
0.116
Persistence0d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1590 | 6.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0853 | -3.04*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0010 | 3.48*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0473 | 6.36*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9453 | 111.84*** |
Persistence:
0.116
Half-life:
0 days
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