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V-Lab
V-Lab

Canadian Dollar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

3.96%

increased by 0.03%

1 Week

4.22%

increased by 0.29%

1 Month

4.40%

increased by 0.47%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 7, 2026 at 07:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Canadian Dollar MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 116% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 116% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.1597
6.16***
βGARCH0.0000
0.00
γleverage-0.0857
-3.05***
λ₁tau intercept0.0010
3.49***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0476
6.34***
λ₃tau persistence0.9449
110.55***

0.117

Persistence

0d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1597
6.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0857
-3.05***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0010
3.49***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0476
6.34***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9449
110.55***

Persistence:

0.117

Half-life:

0 days