V-Lab
US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
1.98%
1 Week
2.02%
1 Month
2.22%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 11950 trading days (~47.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9901 | 288.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0198 | 10.66*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0007 | 1.82* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2211 | 1.06 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0376 | 0.14 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
11950 days
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