V-Lab
US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
1.31%
1 Week
7.69%
1 Month
50,004.52%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 1992 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.3453 | 4.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7806 | 48.54*** |
| γleverage | -0.2520 | -1.30 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1912 | 0.01 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.9776 | 0.28 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence173286d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3453 | 4.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7806 | 48.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2520 | -1.30 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1912 | 0.01 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9776 | 0.28 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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