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V-Lab

US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

1.64%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

1.67%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

1.84%

increased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 1992 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 198042 trading days (~785.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~198042 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow56
αARCH0.0029
0.93
βGARCH0.9887
7,062.41***
γleverage0.0167
2.56**
λ₁tau intercept0.0158
1.13
λ₂forecast adj.0.1647
0.47
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

1.000

Persistence

198042d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0029
0.93
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9887
7,062.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0167
2.56**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0158
1.13
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1647
0.47
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

198042 days