US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
1.50%
1 Week
1.56%
1 Month
1.86%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 03:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 1992 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 7374 trading days (~29.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9902 | 147.13*** |
| γleverage | 0.0194 | 2.31** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0004 | 0.23 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.3088 | 1.09 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence7374d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9902 | 147.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0194 | 2.31** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0004 | 0.23 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3088 | 1.09 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
7374 days
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