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V-Lab

US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

1.98%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

2.02%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

2.22%

increased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 11950 trading days (~47.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9901
288.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0198
10.66***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0007
1.82*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2211
1.06
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0376
0.14

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

11950 days