V-Lab
US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
1.64%
1 Week
1.67%
1 Month
1.84%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 1992 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 198042 trading days (~785.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.0029 | 0.93 |
| βGARCH | 0.9887 | 7,062.41*** |
| γleverage | 0.0167 | 2.56** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0158 | 1.13 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1647 | 0.47 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence198042d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0029 | 0.93 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9887 | 7,062.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0167 | 2.56** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0158 | 1.13 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1647 | 0.47 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
198042 days
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