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US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

1.31%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

7.69%

increased by 6.26%

1 Month

50,004.52%

increased by 50,003.09%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

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graph of US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 1992 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~173286 days
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.3453
4.31***
βGARCH0.7806
48.54***
γleverage-0.2520
-1.30
λ₁tau intercept0.1912
0.01
λ₂forecast adj.0.9776
0.28
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

1.000

Persistence

173286d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3453
4.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7806
48.54***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2520
-1.30
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1912
0.01
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9776
0.28
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

173286 days