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US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

1.50%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

1.56%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

1.86%

increased by 0.36%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 03:18 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/08/2024

to

11/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 1992 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 7374 trading days (~29.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~7374 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow56
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9902
147.13***
γleverage0.0194
2.31**
λ₁tau intercept0.0004
0.23
λ₂forecast adj.0.3088
1.09
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

1.000

Persistence

7374d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9902
147.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0194
2.31**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0004
0.23
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3088
1.09
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

7374 days