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V-Lab

US Dollar to South African Rand MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

11.16%

increased by 0.37%

1 Week

11.55%

increased by 0.76%

1 Month

11.81%

increased by 1.02%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to South African Rand MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 308% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1722
25.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7135
52.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1299
-16.63***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0012
2.78***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0551
5.33***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9449
91.61***

Persistence:

0.821

Half-life:

4 days