US Dollar to South African Rand MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
13.02%
1 Week
13.91%
1 Month
14.60%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 03:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 307% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1729 | 25.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7124 | 52.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1304 | -16.66*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0013 | 2.80*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0558 | 5.32*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9442 | 90.22*** |
Persistence:
0.820
Half-life:
3 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Currencies