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US Dollar to South African Rand MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

8.40%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Week

8.86%

increased by 0.29%

1 Month

9.45%

increased by 0.88%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to South African Rand MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 308% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 308% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.1722
5.79***
βGARCH0.7132
18.87***
γleverage-0.1299
-4.65***
λ₁tau intercept0.0012
2.28**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0557
6.68***
λ₃tau persistence0.9443
112.64***

0.820

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1722
5.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7132
18.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1299
-4.65***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0012
2.28**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0557
6.68***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9443
112.64***

Persistence:

0.820

Half-life:

4 days