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V-Lab

US Dollar to South African Rand MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

13.02%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Week

13.91%

increased by 0.66%

1 Month

14.60%

increased by 1.35%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 03:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to South African Rand MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 307% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1729
25.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7124
52.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1304
-16.66***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0013
2.80***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0558
5.32***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9442
90.22***

Persistence:

0.820

Half-life:

3 days