V-Lab
US Dollar to South African Rand MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
11.16%
1 Week
11.55%
1 Month
11.81%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 308% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1722 | 25.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7135 | 52.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1299 | -16.63*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0012 | 2.78*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0551 | 5.33*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9449 | 91.61*** |
Persistence:
0.821
Half-life:
4 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Currencies