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US Dollar to South African Rand MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

8.63%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Week

8.75%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

9.00%

increased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

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graph of US Dollar to South African Rand MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 306% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 306% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.1726
5.79***
βGARCH0.7095
18.56***
γleverage-0.1301
-4.64***
λ₁tau intercept0.0013
2.31**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0572
6.70***
λ₃tau persistence0.9428
110.16***

0.817

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1726
5.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7095
18.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1301
-4.64***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0013
2.31**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0572
6.70***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9428
110.16***

Persistence:

0.817

Half-life:

3 days