V-Lab
US Dollar to South African Rand EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
8.26%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
8.44%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
9.20%
increased by 0.53%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 62% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0083 | 12.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1524 | 28.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9893 | 924.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0359 | 13.32*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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