V-Lab
Malaysian Ringgit MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
3.27%
increased by 0.11%
1 Week
3.66%
increased by 0.50%
1 Month
4.29%
increased by 1.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.1058 | 5.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6882 | 19.20*** |
| γleverage | 0.0228 | 0.86 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0011 | 2.60*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 1.0000 | 26.73*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.805
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1058 | 5.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6882 | 19.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0228 | 0.86 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0011 | 2.60*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 26.73*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.805
Half-life:
3 days
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