V-Lab
Malaysian Ringgit MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
2.46%
increased by 0.06%
1 Week
2.92%
increased by 0.52%
1 Month
3.76%
increased by 1.36%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.1056 | 5.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6885 | 19.22*** |
| γleverage | 0.0230 | 0.87 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0011 | 2.60*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 1.0000 | 26.71*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.806
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1056 | 5.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6885 | 19.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0230 | 0.87 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0011 | 2.60*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 26.71*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.806
Half-life:
3 days
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