V-Lab
Malaysian Ringgit MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
2.80%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
3.20%
increased by 0.32%
1 Month
3.79%
increased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.1058 | 5.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6882 | 19.20*** |
| γleverage | 0.0228 | 0.86 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0011 | 2.60*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 1.0000 | 26.73*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.805
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1058 | 5.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6882 | 19.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0228 | 0.86 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0011 | 2.60*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 26.73*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.805
Half-life:
3 days
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