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Moroccan Dirham MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

8.28%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

8.22%

decreased by 0.26%

1 Month

7.92%

decreased by 0.56%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 01:57 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/18/2024

to

10/18/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Moroccan Dirham MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.0419
5.50***
βGARCH0.9159
54.92***
γleverage-0.0063
-0.62
λ₁tau intercept0.0002
1.27
λ₂forecast adj.0.0217
4.08***
λ₃tau persistence0.9778
177.84***

0.955

Persistence

15d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0419
5.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9159
54.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0063
-0.62
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0002
1.27
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0217
4.08***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9778
177.84***

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days