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Moroccan Dirham MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

5.96%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Week

5.94%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Month

5.90%

decreased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

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graph of Moroccan Dirham MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.0411
5.36***
βGARCH0.9153
53.75***
γleverage-0.0049
-0.48
λ₁tau intercept0.0002
1.27
λ₂forecast adj.0.0216
4.11***
λ₃tau persistence0.9778
179.62***

0.954

Persistence

15d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0411
5.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9153
53.75***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0049
-0.48
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0002
1.27
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0216
4.11***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9778
179.62***

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days