V-Lab
Moroccan Dirham MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
4.64%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
4.67%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
4.79%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.0412 | 5.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9152 | 53.59*** |
| γleverage | -0.0052 | -0.51 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0002 | 1.25 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0215 | 4.14*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9780 | 181.88*** |
0.954
Persistence15d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0412 | 5.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9152 | 53.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0052 | -0.51 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0002 | 1.25 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0215 | 4.14*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9780 | 181.88*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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