Moroccan Dirham EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
8.11%
increased by 0.32%
1 Week
8.16%
increased by 0.37%
1 Month
8.38%
increased by 0.59%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 02:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 384 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~384 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0042 | 2.40** |
| αARCH | 0.0467 | 4.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9982 | 1,069.88*** |
| γleverage | 0.0063 | 0.46 |
0.998
Persistence384d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0042 | 2.40** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0467 | 4.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9982 | 1,069.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0063 | 0.46 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
384 days
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