V-Lab
Moroccan Dirham EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
5.25%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
5.30%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
5.47%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 01:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 394 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0042 | 9.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0464 | 16.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9982 | 4,496.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0056 | 1.63 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
394 days
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