V-Lab
Bitcoin to US Dollar EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
51.78%
decreased by 4.26%
1 Week
54.48%
decreased by 1.56%
1 Month
63.60%
increased by 7.56%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 06:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Sep 19, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1671 | 5.19*** |
| αARCH | 0.3074 | 7.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9514 | 92.04*** |
| γleverage | -0.0097 | -0.27 |
0.951
Persistence14d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1671 | 5.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3074 | 7.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9514 | 92.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0097 | -0.27 |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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