Indonesian Rupiah EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
4.88%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
5.11%
increased by 0.21%
1 Month
6.12%
increased by 1.22%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 15% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0098 | 4.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2273 | 35.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9843 | 844.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0160 | 2.63*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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