V-Lab
Indonesian Rupiah EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
5.69%
increased by 0.69%
1 Week
5.93%
increased by 0.93%
1 Month
6.96%
increased by 1.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 1998 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 44-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0097 | 1.09 |
| αARCH | 0.2264 | 8.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9844 | 212.65*** |
| γleverage | 0.0164 | 0.67 |
0.984
Persistence44d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0097 | 1.09 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2264 | 8.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9844 | 212.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0164 | 0.67 |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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