V-Lab
Indonesian Rupiah AGARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
5.45%
increased by 0.68%
1 Week
5.55%
increased by 0.78%
1 Month
5.95%
increased by 1.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.005 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0016 | 12.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1021 | 38.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9031 | 434.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0141 | -1.51 |
Persistence:
1.005
Half-life:
-
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