US Dollar to Taiwanese Dollar AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
4.69%
increased by 1.71%
1 Week
4.71%
increased by 1.73%
1 Month
4.78%
increased by 1.80%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.02) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0028 | 20.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1386 | 32.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8333 | 182.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0227 | 3.46*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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