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V-Lab

US Dollar to Taiwanese Dollar AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

4.69%

increased by 1.71%

1 Week

4.71%

increased by 1.73%

1 Month

4.78%

increased by 1.80%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Taiwanese Dollar AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 30, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.02) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0028
20.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1386
32.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8333
182.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0227
3.46***

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

24 days