US Dollar to Taiwanese Dollar AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
5.84%
increased by 0.24%
1 Week
5.80%
increased by 0.20%
1 Month
5.66%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:59 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0028 | 5.21*** |
| αARCH | 0.1374 | 8.16*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8343 | 46.01*** |
| γleverage | 0.0227 | 0.87 |
0.972
Persistence24d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0028 | 5.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1374 | 8.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8343 | 46.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0227 | 0.87 |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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