Norwegian Krone AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
6.27%
increased by 0.08%
1 Week
6.32%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
6.50%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 07:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 121 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~121 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0021 | 3.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.0291 | 6.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9652 | 194.90*** |
| γleverage | -0.0341 | -0.56 |
0.994
Persistence121d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0021 | 3.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0291 | 6.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9652 | 194.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0341 | -0.56 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
121 days
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