Norwegian Krone AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
7.14%
increased by 0.34%
1 Week
7.17%
increased by 0.37%
1 Month
7.30%
increased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 120 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~120 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0021 | 3.63*** |
| αARCH | 0.0291 | 6.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9651 | 194.55*** |
| γleverage | -0.0341 | -0.56 |
0.994
Persistence120d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0021 | 3.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0291 | 6.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9651 | 194.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0341 | -0.56 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
120 days
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