Norwegian Krone GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
6.68%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
6.73%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
6.88%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 12, 2026 at 07:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 120 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~120 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0021 | 3.71*** |
| αARCH | 0.0297 | 6.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9646 | 191.77*** |
0.994
Persistence120d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0021 | 3.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0297 | 6.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9646 | 191.77*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
120 days
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