V-Lab
Australian Dollar GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
6.30%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
6.35%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
6.54%
increased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0025 | 18.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0348 | 25.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9576 | 639.68*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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