Mexican Peso GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
12.52%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
12.49%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
12.38%
decreased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 1995 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 51-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0068 | 6.43*** |
| αARCH | 0.1252 | 8.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8614 | 66.22*** |
0.987
Persistence51d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0068 | 6.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1252 | 8.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8614 | 66.22*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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