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V-Lab

Mexican Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

4.66%

increased by 0.29%

1 Week

4.96%

increased by 0.59%

1 Month

5.87%

increased by 1.50%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mexican Peso GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 31, 1995 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 223% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0077
29.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1745
26.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8637
309.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1204
-15.46***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days