V-Lab
Czech Koruna GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
5.18%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
5.23%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
5.41%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 1993 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 169 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~169 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0014 | 2.93*** |
| αARCH | 0.0364 | 4.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9609 | 151.78*** |
| γleverage | -0.0027 | -0.25 |
0.996
Persistence169d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0014 | 2.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0364 | 4.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9609 | 151.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0027 | -0.25 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
169 days
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