V-Lab
Czech Koruna GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
5.49%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
5.54%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
5.70%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 170 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~170 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0014 | 2.93*** |
| αARCH | 0.0364 | 4.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9610 | 152.15*** |
| γleverage | -0.0028 | -0.25 |
0.996
Persistence170d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0014 | 2.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0364 | 4.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9610 | 152.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0028 | -0.25 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
170 days
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