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V-Lab

Czech Koruna GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

5.49%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

5.54%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

5.70%

increased by 0.14%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

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graph of Czech Koruna GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 19, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 170 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~170 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0014
2.93***
αARCH0.0364
4.22***
βGARCH0.9610
152.15***
γleverage-0.0028
-0.25

0.996

Persistence

170d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0014
2.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0364
4.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9610
152.15***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0028
-0.25

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

170 days