V-Lab
Czech Koruna EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
4.88%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
4.96%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
5.30%
increased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 01:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 1993 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~101 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0007 | 0.35 |
| αARCH | 0.0903 | 6.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9931 | 424.60*** |
| γleverage | 0.0019 | 0.26 |
0.993
Persistence101d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0007 | 0.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0903 | 6.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9931 | 424.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0019 | 0.26 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
101 days
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