Czech Koruna APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
5.68%
1 Week
5.73%
1 Month
5.94%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 1993 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 176 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.67 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0021 | 2.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.0392 | 5.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9608 | 139.39*** |
| γleverage | -0.0280 | -0.55 |
| δpower | 1.6724 | 10.49*** |
0.996
Persistence176d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0021 | 2.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0392 | 5.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9608 | 139.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0280 | -0.55 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6724 | 10.49*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
176 days
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