V-Lab
Indian Rupee APARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
3.78%
1 Week
3.79%
1 Month
3.83%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 4, 1991 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1191573476 trading days (~4728466.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 110% more than negative returns
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0002 | 1.11 |
| αARCH | 0.0621 | 4.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9379 | 115.88*** |
| γleverage | -0.1913 | -2.78*** |
| δpower | 1.9114 | 8.45*** |
1.000
Persistence1191573476d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0002 | 1.11 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0621 | 4.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9379 | 115.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1913 | -2.78*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9114 | 8.45*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1191573476 days
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