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V-Lab

Indian Rupee APARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

3.78%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

3.79%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

3.83%

decreased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Indian Rupee APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 4, 1991 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1191573476 trading days (~4728466.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 110% more than negative returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1191573476 daysInverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 110% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0002
1.11
αARCH0.0621
4.79***
βGARCH0.9379
115.88***
γleverage-0.1913
-2.78***
δpower1.9114
8.45***

1.000

Persistence

1191573476d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0002
1.11
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0621
4.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9379
115.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1913
-2.78***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.9114
8.45***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1191573476 days