Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Hungarian Forint APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026

1 Day

8.94%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Week

8.97%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

9.10%

increased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/13/2024

to

10/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hungarian Forint APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 1993 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 195 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.67 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~195 daysδ = 1.67 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0025
3.28***
αARCH0.0357
5.98***
βGARCH0.9644
185.85***
γleverage-0.0657
-0.97
δpower1.6696
8.79***

0.996

Persistence

195d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0025
3.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0357
5.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9644
185.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0657
-0.97
δ

power

Transformation power

1.6696
8.79***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

195 days