Hungarian Forint APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
8.94%
1 Week
8.97%
1 Month
9.10%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 1993 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 195 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.67 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0025 | 3.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.0357 | 5.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9644 | 185.85*** |
| γleverage | -0.0657 | -0.97 |
| δpower | 1.6696 | 8.79*** |
0.996
Persistence195d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0025 | 3.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0357 | 5.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9644 | 185.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0657 | -0.97 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6696 | 8.79*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
195 days
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