V-Lab
Hungarian Forint MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
9.74%
increased by 0.09%
1 Week
10.00%
increased by 0.35%
1 Month
10.31%
increased by 0.66%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 1993 to Sep 4, 2026σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0904 | 4.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.1087 | 0.95 |
| γleverage | -0.0156 | -0.58 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0716 | 4.81*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8422 | 6.29*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.191
Persistence0d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0904 | 4.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1087 | 0.95 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0156 | -0.58 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0716 | 4.81*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8422 | 6.29*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.191
Half-life:
0 days
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