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Hungarian Forint GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

7.68%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

7.71%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

7.82%

increased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hungarian Forint GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 1993 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 143 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~143 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0020
3.09***
αARCH0.0330
5.43***
βGARCH0.9644
192.88***
γleverage-0.0044
-0.49

0.995

Persistence

143d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0020
3.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0330
5.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9644
192.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0044
-0.49

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

143 days