V-Lab
Hungarian Forint GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
9.83%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
9.84%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
9.85%
decreased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 145 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0020 | 12.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0330 | 21.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9643 | 769.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0043 | -1.89* |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
145 days
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