Hungarian Forint GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
7.68%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
7.71%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
7.82%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 1993 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 143 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~143 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0020 | 3.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.0330 | 5.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9644 | 192.88*** |
| γleverage | -0.0044 | -0.49 |
0.995
Persistence143d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0020 | 3.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0330 | 5.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9644 | 192.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0044 | -0.49 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
143 days
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