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Hungarian Forint GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

10.03%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

10.04%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

10.05%

decreased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hungarian Forint GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 1993 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 146 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~146 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0020
3.08***
αARCH0.0330
5.44***
βGARCH0.9644
193.15***
γleverage-0.0044
-0.49

0.995

Persistence

146d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0020
3.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0330
5.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9644
193.15***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0044
-0.49

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

146 days