Hungarian Forint GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
9.43%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
9.43%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
9.47%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 1993 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 145 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~145 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0020 | 3.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.0329 | 5.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9646 | 193.49*** |
| γleverage | -0.0045 | -0.51 |
0.995
Persistence145d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0020 | 3.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0329 | 5.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9646 | 193.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0045 | -0.51 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
145 days
Other Hungarian Forint Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Currencies