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V-Lab

Hungarian Forint GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

9.75%

increased by 0.38%

1 Week

9.76%

increased by 0.39%

1 Month

9.78%

increased by 0.41%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:53 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hungarian Forint GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 145 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0020
12.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0330
21.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9644
770.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0043
-1.89*

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

145 days