V-Lab
US Dollar to Brazilian Real GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
8.72%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
8.82%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
9.22%
increased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 115% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0063 | 5.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0999 | 26.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9183 | 522.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0534 | -8.50*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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