V-Lab
US Dollar to Brazilian Real GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
8.40%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
8.52%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
8.94%
increased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1992 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 115% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~81 daysInverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 115% more than negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0063 | 1.27 |
| αARCH | 0.0995 | 6.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9186 | 131.20*** |
| γleverage | -0.0532 | -2.11** |
0.992
Persistence81d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0063 | 1.27 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0995 | 6.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9186 | 131.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0532 | -2.11** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
81 days
Other US Dollar to Brazilian Real Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Currencies