US Dollar to Brazilian Real GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
25.84%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Week
25.72%
decreased by 1.21%
1 Month
25.26%
decreased by 1.67%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 02:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1992 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~98 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0063 | 1.31 |
| αARCH | 0.0981 | 5.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9180 | 129.39*** |
| γleverage | -0.0463 | -1.64 |
0.993
Persistence98d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0063 | 1.31 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0981 | 5.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9180 | 129.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0463 | -1.64 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
98 days
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