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V-Lab

US Dollar to Brazilian Real GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

7.75%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

7.89%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

8.39%

increased by 0.42%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Brazilian Real GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 115% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0064
5.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1001
26.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9181
521.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0535
-8.51***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

82 days