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US Dollar to Brazilian Real GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

8.40%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Week

8.52%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Month

8.94%

increased by 0.29%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

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graph of US Dollar to Brazilian Real GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1992 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 115% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~81 daysInverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 115% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0063
1.27
αARCH0.0995
6.63***
βGARCH0.9186
131.20***
γleverage-0.0532
-2.11**

0.992

Persistence

81d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0063
1.27
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0995
6.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9186
131.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0532
-2.11**

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

81 days