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US Dollar to Costa Rican Colon GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

4.29%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

4.31%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

4.42%

increased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Costa Rican Colon GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0004
7.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0461
15.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9509
663.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0060
1.02

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-