V-Lab
US Dollar to Costa Rican Colon GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4.93%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
4.96%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
5.04%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0004 | 7.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0460 | 15.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9510 | 665.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0060 | 1.02 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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