Japanese Yen GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
6.32%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
6.35%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
6.49%
increased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~88 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0022 | 4.75*** |
| αARCH | 0.0265 | 4.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9553 | 205.44*** |
| γleverage | 0.0208 | 1.87* |
0.992
Persistence88d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0022 | 4.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0265 | 4.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9553 | 205.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0208 | 1.87* |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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