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V-Lab

Japanese Yen GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

9.29%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Week

9.28%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Month

9.23%

decreased by 0.25%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Japanese Yen GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 81% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0022
18.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0266
17.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9549
817.52***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0215
7.59***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

88 days