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V-Lab

Japanese Yen GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

8.02%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

8.03%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

8.05%

decreased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Japanese Yen GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 80% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0022
19.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0265
17.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9551
821.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0212
7.54***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

89 days