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V-Lab

Romanian Leu GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

4.94%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

4.97%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

5.05%

increased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Romanian Leu GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2002 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 336 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0007
11.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0322
18.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9672
948.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0029
-0.98

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

336 days