V-Lab
Romanian Leu GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
4.56%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
4.59%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
4.69%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2002 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 338 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 11.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0323 | 18.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9671 | 949.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0029 | -0.96 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
338 days
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