V-Lab
Romanian Leu GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
4.55%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
4.57%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
4.67%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2002 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 341 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~341 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0006 | 2.84*** |
| αARCH | 0.0324 | 4.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9671 | 237.56*** |
| γleverage | -0.0031 | -0.25 |
0.998
Persistence341d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 2.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0324 | 4.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9671 | 237.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0031 | -0.25 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
341 days
Other Romanian Leu Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Currencies