V-Lab
Romanian Leu GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4.94%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
4.97%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
5.05%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2002 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 336 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0007 | 11.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0322 | 18.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9672 | 948.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0029 | -0.98 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
336 days
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