V-Lab
Australian Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
5.69%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
5.75%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
5.98%
increased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 149% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0025 | 14.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0172 | 14.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9613 | 768.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0257 | 9.19*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
80 days
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