V-Lab
Australian Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
6.42%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
6.46%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
6.62%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 01:11 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 150% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~81 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 150% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0025 | 3.63*** |
| αARCH | 0.0172 | 3.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9614 | 193.45*** |
| γleverage | 0.0257 | 2.30** |
0.991
Persistence81d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0025 | 3.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0172 | 3.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9614 | 193.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0257 | 2.30** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
81 days
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