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V-Lab

Australian Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

6.42%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

6.46%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

6.62%

increased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 01:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/04/2024

to

10/04/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Australian Dollar GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 150% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~81 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 150% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0025
3.63***
αARCH0.0172
3.62***
βGARCH0.9614
193.45***
γleverage0.0257
2.30**

0.991

Persistence

81d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0025
3.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0172
3.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9614
193.45***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0257
2.30**

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

81 days