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V-Lab

Australian Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

6.13%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

6.18%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

6.37%

increased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:07 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Australian Dollar GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 148% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0025
14.59***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0173
14.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9612
765.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0256
9.11***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

79 days