V-Lab
Australian Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
6.13%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
6.18%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
6.37%
increased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 148% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0025 | 14.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0173 | 14.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9612 | 765.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0256 | 9.11*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
79 days
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