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V-Lab

Australian Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

5.69%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

5.75%

decreased by 0.00%

1 Month

5.98%

increased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Australian Dollar GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 149% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0025
14.52***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0172
14.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9613
768.40***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0257
9.19***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

80 days