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V-Lab

South African Rand GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

15.30%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

15.33%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Month

15.44%

decreased by 0.33%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of South African Rand GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 84% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0017
9.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0784
26.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9394
534.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0357
-9.47***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days