V-Lab
South African Rand GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
15.30%
1 Week
15.33%
1 Month
15.44%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 84% more than negative returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0017 | 9.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0784 | 26.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9394 | 534.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0357 | -9.47*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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