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South African Rand GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

8.47%

increased by 0.07%

1 Week

8.52%

increased by 0.12%

1 Month

8.72%

increased by 0.32%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC

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graph of South African Rand GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 83% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 daysInverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 83% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0017
2.43**
αARCH0.0788
6.63***
βGARCH0.9390
133.86***
γleverage-0.0357
-2.36**

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0017
2.43**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0788
6.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9390
133.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0357
-2.36**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days