V-Lab
US Dollar to Euro GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
4.31%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
4.33%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
4.41%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 283 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 46% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0005 | 10.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0268 | 16.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9750 | 1,097.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0084 | -3.21*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
283 days
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