US Dollar to Euro GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
4.65%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
4.67%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
4.73%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 02:53 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 294 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~294 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0005 | 2.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.0267 | 4.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9751 | 276.85*** |
| γleverage | -0.0083 | -0.79 |
0.998
Persistence294d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0005 | 2.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0267 | 4.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9751 | 276.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0083 | -0.79 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
294 days
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