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V-Lab

US Dollar to Euro GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

4.87%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

4.89%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

4.96%

increased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Euro GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 276 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 47% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0006
10.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0267
16.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9751
1,098.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0086
-3.28***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

276 days