V-Lab
US Dollar to Euro GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
4.22%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
4.25%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
4.33%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 285 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~285 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0005 | 2.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.0268 | 4.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9750 | 275.04*** |
| γleverage | -0.0085 | -0.81 |
0.998
Persistence285d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0005 | 2.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0268 | 4.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9750 | 275.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0085 | -0.81 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
285 days
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