V-Lab
US Dollar to Euro APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
4.53%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
4.55%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
4.63%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 346 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 44% more than negative returns
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 8.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0239 | 20.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9751 | 1,095.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0983 | -6.20*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8610 | 26.40*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
346 days
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