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V-Lab

US Dollar to Euro APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

4.53%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

4.55%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

4.63%

increased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Euro APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 346 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 44% more than negative returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0006
8.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0239
20.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9751
1,095.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0983
-6.20***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.8610
26.40***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

346 days