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V-Lab
V-Lab

Canadian Dollar APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

4.19%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

4.20%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

4.26%

increased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Canadian Dollar APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 170 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 57% more than negative returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~170 daysInverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 57% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0005
2.94***
αARCH0.0295
6.61***
βGARCH0.9660
239.00***
γleverage-0.1112
-2.28**
δpower2.0064
10.40***

0.996

Persistence

170d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0005
2.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0295
6.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9660
239.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1112
-2.28**
δ

power

Transformation power

2.0064
10.40***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

170 days