V-Lab
Malaysian Ringgit APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
3.18%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
3.25%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
3.52%
increased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 01:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 2005 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 211 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
APARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~211 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0011 | 2.39** |
| αARCH | 0.0886 | 7.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9098 | 106.38*** |
| γleverage | -0.0119 | -0.27 |
| δpower | 1.9480 | 8.11*** |
0.997
Persistence211d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0011 | 2.39** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0886 | 7.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9098 | 106.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0119 | -0.27 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9480 | 8.11*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
211 days
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