Malaysian Ringgit Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
3.04%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
3.19%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
3.69%
increased by 0.60%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 2005 to Oct 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 39 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5986 | 3.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.0978 | 8.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8848 | 72.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0382 | -2.59*** |
| γ2 | 0.0335 | 1.52 |
| γ3 | 0.0219 | 1.62 |
| γ4 | -0.0250 | -2.82*** |
0.983
Persistence39d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5986 | 3.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0978 | 8.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8848 | 72.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0382 | -2.59*** |
| γ2 | 0.0335 | 1.52 |
| γ3 | 0.0219 | 1.62 |
| γ4 | -0.0250 | -2.82*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
39 days
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