V-Lab
Malaysian Ringgit Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
2.76%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
2.93%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
3.46%
increased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 2005 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 42 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6043 | 3.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0950 | 8.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8888 | 75.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0384 | -2.47** |
| γ2 | 0.0333 | 1.44 |
| γ3 | 0.0225 | 1.58 |
| γ4 | -0.0252 | -2.68*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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