V-Lab
Malaysian Ringgit Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
3.24%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
3.37%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
3.80%
increased by 0.52%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 7, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 2005 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 42 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6032 | 3.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.0953 | 8.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8882 | 75.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0382 | -2.50** |
| γ2 | 0.0334 | 1.47 |
| γ3 | 0.0221 | 1.58 |
| γ4 | -0.0250 | -2.73*** |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6032 | 3.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0953 | 8.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8882 | 75.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0382 | -2.50** |
| γ2 | 0.0334 | 1.47 |
| γ3 | 0.0221 | 1.58 |
| γ4 | -0.0250 | -2.73*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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