V-Lab
Malaysian Ringgit Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
3.61%
increased by 0.92%
1 Week
3.71%
increased by 1.02%
1 Month
4.04%
increased by 1.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 2005 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 44 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6095 | 3.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0957 | 8.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8885 | 75.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0387 | -2.49** |
| γ2 | 0.0340 | 1.47 |
| γ3 | 0.0215 | 1.50 |
| γ4 | -0.0241 | -2.57** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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