V-Lab
Malaysian Ringgit Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
3.64%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
3.75%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
4.11%
increased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 2005 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 42 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6015 | 3.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0940 | 8.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8897 | 76.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0381 | -2.44** |
| γ2 | 0.0326 | 1.40 |
| γ3 | 0.0238 | 1.67* |
| γ4 | -0.0265 | -2.82*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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