V-Lab
Singapore Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
2.52%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
2.56%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
2.70%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~87 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9861 | 8.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.0479 | 9.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9442 | 170.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0000 | -0.04 |
0.992
Persistence87d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9861 | 8.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0479 | 9.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9442 | 170.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0000 | -0.04 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
87 days
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