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Singapore Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

2.52%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

2.56%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

2.70%

increased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC

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graph of Singapore Dollar S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~87 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9861
8.10***
αARCH0.0479
9.68***
βGARCH0.9442
170.93***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0000
-0.04

0.992

Persistence

87d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9861
8.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0479
9.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9442
170.93***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0000
-0.04

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

87 days