V-Lab
Hong Kong Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
0.39%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
0.44%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
0.58%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2003 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~101 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.3732 | 2.75*** |
| αARCH | 0.1915 | 6.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8016 | 29.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0920 | 0.32 |
| γ2 | -0.1167 | -0.29 |
| γ3 | 0.0748 | 0.35 |
| γ4 | -0.2154 | -1.13 |
| γ5 | 0.3893 | 2.66*** |
| γ6 | -0.2746 | -2.80*** |
| γ7 | -0.1166 | -1.03 |
| γ8 | 0.4639 | 3.37*** |
| γ9 | -0.5048 | -3.44*** |
| γ10 | 0.2466 | 2.10** |
0.993
Persistence101d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.3732 | 2.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1915 | 6.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8016 | 29.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0920 | 0.32 |
| γ2 | -0.1167 | -0.29 |
| γ3 | 0.0748 | 0.35 |
| γ4 | -0.2154 | -1.13 |
| γ5 | 0.3893 | 2.66*** |
| γ6 | -0.2746 | -2.80*** |
| γ7 | -0.1166 | -1.03 |
| γ8 | 0.4639 | 3.37*** |
| γ9 | -0.5048 | -3.44*** |
| γ10 | 0.2466 | 2.10** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
101 days
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