V-Lab
Hong Kong Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
0.43%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
0.48%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
0.66%
increased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2003 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.3309 | 2.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1946 | 6.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7982 | 29.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0941 | 0.33 |
| γ2 | -0.1190 | -0.29 |
| γ3 | 0.0774 | 0.36 |
| γ4 | -0.2230 | -1.14 |
| γ5 | 0.3941 | 2.65*** |
| γ6 | -0.2652 | -2.54** |
| γ7 | -0.1349 | -1.08 |
| γ8 | 0.4707 | 3.17*** |
| γ9 | -0.4807 | -3.10*** |
| γ10 | 0.2092 | 1.72* |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
96 days
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