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V-Lab

Hong Kong Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

0.40%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

0.44%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

0.55%

increased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hong Kong Dollar S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 30, 2003 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 100 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~100 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.3015
2.74***
αARCH0.1893
6.28***
βGARCH0.8037
29.76***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0912
0.33
γ2-0.1168
-0.29
γ30.0749
0.36
γ4-0.2115
-1.14
γ50.3868
2.67***
γ6-0.2818
-2.97***
γ7-0.1016
-0.98
γ80.4545
3.57***
γ9-0.5193
-3.79***
γ100.2743
2.47**

0.993

Persistence

100d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.3015
2.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1893
6.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8037
29.76***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0912
0.33
γ2-0.1168
-0.29
γ30.0749
0.36
γ4-0.2115
-1.14
γ50.3868
2.67***
γ6-0.2818
-2.97***
γ7-0.1016
-0.98
γ80.4545
3.57***
γ9-0.5193
-3.79***
γ100.2743
2.47**

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

100 days