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V-Lab

Hong Kong Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

0.43%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

0.48%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

0.66%

increased by 0.22%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hong Kong Dollar S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 30, 2003 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.3309
2.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1946
6.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7982
29.23***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0941
0.33
γ2-0.1190
-0.29
γ30.0774
0.36
γ4-0.2230
-1.14
γ50.3941
2.65***
γ6-0.2652
-2.54**
γ7-0.1349
-1.08
γ80.4707
3.17***
γ9-0.4807
-3.10***
γ100.2092
1.72*

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

96 days