Hong Kong Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
0.40%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
0.44%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
0.55%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2003 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 100 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~100 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.3015 | 2.74*** |
| αARCH | 0.1893 | 6.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8037 | 29.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0912 | 0.33 |
| γ2 | -0.1168 | -0.29 |
| γ3 | 0.0749 | 0.36 |
| γ4 | -0.2115 | -1.14 |
| γ5 | 0.3868 | 2.67*** |
| γ6 | -0.2818 | -2.97*** |
| γ7 | -0.1016 | -0.98 |
| γ8 | 0.4545 | 3.57*** |
| γ9 | -0.5193 | -3.79*** |
| γ10 | 0.2743 | 2.47** |
0.993
Persistence100d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.3015 | 2.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1893 | 6.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8037 | 29.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0912 | 0.33 |
| γ2 | -0.1168 | -0.29 |
| γ3 | 0.0749 | 0.36 |
| γ4 | -0.2115 | -1.14 |
| γ5 | 0.3868 | 2.67*** |
| γ6 | -0.2818 | -2.97*** |
| γ7 | -0.1016 | -0.98 |
| γ8 | 0.4545 | 3.57*** |
| γ9 | -0.5193 | -3.79*** |
| γ10 | 0.2743 | 2.47** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
100 days
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