V-Lab
Hong Kong Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
0.41%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
0.45%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
0.60%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 7, 2026 at 07:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~99 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.3274 | 2.71*** |
| αARCH | 0.1919 | 6.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8011 | 29.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0921 | 0.32 |
| γ2 | -0.1170 | -0.29 |
| γ3 | 0.0755 | 0.36 |
| γ4 | -0.2170 | -1.13 |
| γ5 | 0.3903 | 2.66*** |
| γ6 | -0.2729 | -2.75*** |
| γ7 | -0.1202 | -1.04 |
| γ8 | 0.4657 | 3.33*** |
| γ9 | -0.5014 | -3.38*** |
| γ10 | 0.2407 | 2.05** |
0.993
Persistence99d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.3274 | 2.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1919 | 6.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8011 | 29.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0921 | 0.32 |
| γ2 | -0.1170 | -0.29 |
| γ3 | 0.0755 | 0.36 |
| γ4 | -0.2170 | -1.13 |
| γ5 | 0.3903 | 2.66*** |
| γ6 | -0.2729 | -2.75*** |
| γ7 | -0.1202 | -1.04 |
| γ8 | 0.4657 | 3.33*** |
| γ9 | -0.5014 | -3.38*** |
| γ10 | 0.2407 | 2.05** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
99 days
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