V-Lab
Hong Kong Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
0.40%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
0.45%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
0.61%
increased by 0.25%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2003 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.3080 | 2.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1937 | 6.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7990 | 29.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0947 | 0.33 |
| γ2 | -0.1205 | -0.30 |
| γ3 | 0.0781 | 0.36 |
| γ4 | -0.2211 | -1.15 |
| γ5 | 0.3927 | 2.66*** |
| γ6 | -0.2696 | -2.66*** |
| γ7 | -0.1267 | -1.06 |
| γ8 | 0.4681 | 3.24*** |
| γ9 | -0.4927 | -3.24*** |
| γ10 | 0.2275 | 1.90* |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
95 days
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