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V-Lab

Hong Kong Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

0.29%

increased by 0.05%

1 Week

0.32%

increased by 0.08%

1 Month

0.40%

increased by 0.16%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hong Kong Dollar GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 30, 2003 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
14.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1715
12.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8247
114.42***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0074
0.35

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-