US Dollar to Chilean Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
10.93%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
10.91%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Month
10.85%
decreased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 02:53 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~91 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0029 | 2.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.0582 | 4.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9413 | 129.99*** |
| γleverage | -0.0139 | -0.63 |
0.992
Persistence91d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0029 | 2.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0582 | 4.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9413 | 129.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0139 | -0.63 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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