V-Lab
US Dollar to Chilean Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
7.19%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
7.23%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
7.40%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 32% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0029 | 11.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0584 | 18.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9411 | 516.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0143 | -2.59*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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