V-Lab
US Dollar to Chilean Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
7.73%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
7.77%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
7.90%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~90 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0029 | 2.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.0582 | 4.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9412 | 129.41*** |
| γleverage | -0.0142 | -0.64 |
0.992
Persistence90d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0029 | 2.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0582 | 4.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9412 | 129.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0142 | -0.64 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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