V-Lab
US Dollar to Chilean Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
8.46%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
8.48%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
8.56%
decreased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 32% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0029 | 11.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0584 | 18.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9410 | 516.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0142 | -2.58*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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