V-Lab
US Dollar to Chilean Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
10.73%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
10.72%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Month
10.67%
decreased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~91 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0029 | 2.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.0583 | 4.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9412 | 129.73*** |
| γleverage | -0.0142 | -0.65 |
0.992
Persistence91d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0029 | 2.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0583 | 4.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9412 | 129.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0142 | -0.65 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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