US Dollar to Chilean Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
8.56%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
8.58%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
8.66%
decreased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 02:54 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~90 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0029 | 2.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.0581 | 4.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9413 | 129.72*** |
| γleverage | -0.0141 | -0.64 |
0.992
Persistence90d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0029 | 2.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0581 | 4.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9413 | 129.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0141 | -0.64 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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