V-Lab
US Dollar to Chilean Peso GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
14.23%
1 Week
14.23%
1 Month
14.20%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 256 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.25 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6866 | 2.17** |
| αARCH | 0.0350 | 28.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9973 | 815.45*** |
| νDF | 2.2543 | 164.95*** |
0.997
Persistence256d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6866 | 2.17** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0350 | 28.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9973 | 815.45*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.2543 | 164.95*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
256 days
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