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US Dollar to Chilean Peso GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

14.23%

increased by 0.20%

1 Week

14.23%

increased by 0.20%

1 Month

14.20%

increased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Chilean Peso GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 256 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.25 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~256 daysv = 2.25 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.6866
2.17**
αARCH0.0350
28.57***
βGARCH0.9973
815.45***
νDF2.2543
164.95***

0.997

Persistence

256d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6866
2.17**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0350
28.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9973
815.45***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.2543
164.95***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

256 days