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V-Lab

US Dollar to Chilean Peso Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

10.37%

increased by 2.13%

1 Week

10.23%

increased by 1.99%

1 Month

9.81%

increased by 1.57%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Chilean Peso SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9483
2.55**
αARCH0.0731
7.42***
βGARCH0.8790
55.54***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0007
-0.01
γ20.0616
0.83
γ3-0.1445
-3.83***
γ40.1550
5.24***
γ5-0.1397
-4.43***
γ60.1247
4.74***
γ7-0.0658
-3.91***
γ8-0.0017
-0.10
γ9-0.0131
-0.48

0.952

Persistence

14d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9483
2.55**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0731
7.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8790
55.54***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0007
-0.01
γ20.0616
0.83
γ3-0.1445
-3.83***
γ40.1550
5.24***
γ5-0.1397
-4.43***
γ60.1247
4.74***
γ7-0.0658
-3.91***
γ8-0.0017
-0.10
γ9-0.0131
-0.48

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days