V-Lab
US Dollar to Chilean Peso Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
10.37%
increased by 2.13%
1 Week
10.23%
increased by 1.99%
1 Month
9.81%
increased by 1.57%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9483 | 2.55** |
| αARCH | 0.0731 | 7.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8790 | 55.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0007 | -0.01 |
| γ2 | 0.0616 | 0.83 |
| γ3 | -0.1445 | -3.83*** |
| γ4 | 0.1550 | 5.24*** |
| γ5 | -0.1397 | -4.43*** |
| γ6 | 0.1247 | 4.74*** |
| γ7 | -0.0658 | -3.91*** |
| γ8 | -0.0017 | -0.10 |
| γ9 | -0.0131 | -0.48 |
0.952
Persistence14d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9483 | 2.55** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0731 | 7.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8790 | 55.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0007 | -0.01 |
| γ2 | 0.0616 | 0.83 |
| γ3 | -0.1445 | -3.83*** |
| γ4 | 0.1550 | 5.24*** |
| γ5 | -0.1397 | -4.43*** |
| γ6 | 0.1247 | 4.74*** |
| γ7 | -0.0658 | -3.91*** |
| γ8 | -0.0017 | -0.10 |
| γ9 | -0.0131 | -0.48 |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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