V-Lab
British Pound Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
4.75%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
4.79%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
4.96%
increased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 114 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~114 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1287 | 7.87*** |
| αARCH | 0.0306 | 6.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9633 | 182.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0003 | 1.04 |
0.994
Persistence114d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1287 | 7.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0306 | 6.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9633 | 182.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0003 | 1.04 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
114 days
Other British Pound Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Currencies