Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

British Pound Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

4.88%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

4.92%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

5.08%

increased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of British Pound SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~113 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1339
7.93***
αARCH0.0307
6.22***
βGARCH0.9632
181.25***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0004
1.13

0.994

Persistence

113d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1339
7.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0307
6.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9632
181.25***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0004
1.13

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

113 days