V-Lab
British Pound Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
4.88%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
4.92%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
5.08%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~113 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1339 | 7.93*** |
| αARCH | 0.0307 | 6.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9632 | 181.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 1.13 |
0.994
Persistence113d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1339 | 7.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0307 | 6.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9632 | 181.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 1.13 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
113 days
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