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V-Lab
V-Lab

Croatian Kuna Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

4.03%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

4.04%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

4.11%

increased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Croatian Kuna SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 9, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 193 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~193 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3860
7.77***
αARCH0.0247
7.55***
βGARCH0.9717
265.00***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0004
0.69

0.996

Persistence

193d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3860
7.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0247
7.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9717
265.00***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0004
0.69

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

193 days