V-Lab
Croatian Kuna Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
4.03%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
4.04%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
4.11%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 193 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~193 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3860 | 7.77*** |
| αARCH | 0.0247 | 7.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9717 | 265.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 0.69 |
0.996
Persistence193d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3860 | 7.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0247 | 7.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9717 | 265.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 0.69 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
193 days
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