Croatian Kuna MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
4.57%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
4.53%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
4.66%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 1996 to Oct 2, 2026σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 51 | |
| αARCH | 0.0502 | 3.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0855 | 0.54 |
| γleverage | 0.0322 | 1.32 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0202 | 3.51*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.9395 | 18.53*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.152
Persistence0d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0502 | 3.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0855 | 0.54 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0322 | 1.32 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0202 | 3.51*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9395 | 18.53*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.152
Half-life:
0 days
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