Croatian Kuna EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
4.78%
increased by 0.05%
1 Week
4.83%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
5.01%
increased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 277 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 41% more than negative returns
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0031 | 7.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0627 | 30.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9975 | 4,006.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0107 | 6.12*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
277 days
Other Croatian Kuna Analyses
Other EGARCH Analyses on Currencies