Croatian Kuna GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
4.35%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
4.37%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
4.45%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 451 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~451 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0004 | 2.44** |
| αARCH | 0.0249 | 8.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9736 | 307.50*** |
0.998
Persistence451d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0004 | 2.44** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0249 | 8.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9736 | 307.50*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
451 days
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