V-Lab
Bitcoin to US Dollar GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
40.40%
decreased by 1.74%
1 Week
43.25%
increased by 1.11%
1 Month
52.26%
increased by 10.12%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 06:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Sep 5, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5780 | 4.39*** |
| αARCH | 0.1632 | 6.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8215 | 40.29*** |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5780 | 4.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1632 | 6.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8215 | 40.29*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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