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V-Lab

Bitcoin to US Dollar GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

40.40%

decreased by 1.74%

1 Week

43.25%

increased by 1.11%

1 Month

52.26%

increased by 10.12%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 06:01 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bitcoin to US Dollar GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2010 to Sep 5, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5780
4.39***
αARCH0.1632
6.72***
βGARCH0.8215
40.29***

0.985

Persistence

45d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5780
4.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1632
6.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8215
40.29***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

45 days