V-Lab
US Dollar to Japanese Yen GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
8.03%
increased by 0.29%
1 Week
8.04%
increased by 0.30%
1 Month
8.08%
increased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 109 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0020 | 4.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0376 | 8.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9560 | 199.00*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
109 days
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