V-Lab
Chilean Peso GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.41%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
10.43%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
10.50%
decreased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 03:44 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1992 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 377 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~377 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0016 | 3.14*** |
| αARCH | 0.0507 | 7.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9475 | 141.25*** |
0.998
Persistence377d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0016 | 3.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0507 | 7.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9475 | 141.25*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
377 days
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