Chilean Peso AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
9.14%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
9.17%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
9.27%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1992 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 421 trading days (~1.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0015 | 14.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0501 | 28.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9482 | 556.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0350 | -2.00** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
421 days
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