Chilean Peso AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
9.21%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
9.24%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
9.34%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1992 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 404 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~404 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0015 | 3.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.0500 | 7.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9483 | 140.01*** |
| γleverage | -0.0344 | -0.49 |
0.998
Persistence404d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0015 | 3.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0500 | 7.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9483 | 140.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0344 | -0.49 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
404 days
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